The Fed Has a New Plan to Avoid Recession: Party Like It’s 1994

The history of central bank rate hikes appears to support the inevitability of an economic downturn, but there have been rare instances when the Fed has raised interest rates and avoided recession: One example is 1994.—cnn.com, May 16, 2022

Some data

In 1994, the Fed raised the federal funds rate from 3 percent to 5.5 percent in small steps through the year. The inflation rate fell from 3 percent to 2.5 percent, and the unemployment rate fell from 6.6 percent in January to 5.5 percent in December. The natural unemployment rate was 5.5 percent.

In April 2022, the federal funds rate was 0.3 percent, the inflation rate was 6.1 percent, and the unemployment rate was 3.6 percent. The natural unemployment rate was 4.4 percent.

Answer the following questions to check your understanding of the story.

1) How do we know that the expected inflation rate fell in 1994?

We know the expected inflation rate fell in 1994 because the inflation rate fell, the unemployment rate decreased, and _____________ .

2) With no change in the expected inflation rate or the natural unemployment rate, how will the inflation rate and unemployment rate change as the Fed raises the federal funds rate in 2022?

The inflation rate will ______________ and the unemployment rate will______________.

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