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The Global Economic Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War

In late 2021, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasted that the global economy would grow by 4.5 percent in 2022, and that consumer prices would rise by 4.2 percent. But due to the Russo-Ukrainian War, the OECD now forecasts that global economic growth will be 1.1 percentage points lower and inflation will be 2.5 points higher.—The Wall Street Journal

What is “global economic growth” and how is it measured?

Global economic growth is the growth in production of goods and services, and it is measured as the percentage growth rate of global GDP.

What are the OECD forecasts for global growth and inflation in 2022?

The table sets out the OECD forecasts for 2022.

With no war, the OECD forecasts that the global economy would have grown by 4.5 percent in 2022, and that consumer prices would have risen by 4.2 percent. But the war brought revised forecasts of 3.4 percent for real GDP growth and 6.7 percent for inflation.

What is the economic model used to understand economic growth and inflation?

The aggregate supply–aggregate demand model is used to understand the forces that bring economic growth and inflation.

Is the Russo-Ukrainian War expected to change aggregate demand, aggregate supply, or both?

Work these questions to check your understanding and get instant feedback.

Answer the following questions to check your understanding of the story.

A country’s economy is initially in short-run macroeconomic equilibrium. When short-run aggregate supply decreases, how do real GDP and the price level change?

When short-run aggregate supply decreases, real GDP ______________, and the price level ______________.

When short-run aggregate supply decreases, the SAS curve shifts leftward. What happens to the price level?

When short-run aggregate supply decreases, the SAS curve shifts leftward. What happens to real GDP?

When short-run aggregate supply decreases, the SAS curve shifts leftward. Sketch it. What happens to real GDP and the price level?

When short-run aggregate supply decreases, real GDP decreases, and the price level rises.

A country’s economy is initially in short-run macroeconomic equilibrium. Simultaneously, there is an increase in aggregate demand and a decrease in short-run aggregate supply. How do real GDP and the price level change?

When aggregate demand increases and short-run aggregate supply decreases, real GDP ______________, and the price level ______________.

If the decrease in aggregate supply exceeds the increase in aggregate demand, what happens to real GDP?

How does the price level change when aggregate demand increases? How does it change when short-run aggregate supply decreases? What is the combined effect?

The price level rises. The change in real GDP depends on the relative magnitudes of the changes in aggregate demand and short-run aggregate supply.

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